In his excellent book The Politics of Glory (later republished as Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?), Bill James outlined what he called the Baseball Hall of Fame Standards Test. In a nutshell, the system awards points to players for various statistical accomplishments: hitting .300, winning 300 games, etc. James designed the system such that the typical Hall of Famer had a score of 50. It’s important to note up front that James’ goal was not to identify players who should be elected to the Hall of Fame, but rather players who would be elected.
I wanted to develop a similar system for basketball, but immediately ran into a problem: The election process for the Baseball Hall of Fame is very different from that of the Basketball Hall of Fame, the biggest difference being that the Basketball Hall of Fame honors players based on their college, international, and/or professional accomplishments, while the Baseball Hall of Fame honors players based solely on their professional careers.
Because I wanted to evaluate a player based solely on his NBA career, I developed my system using players who:
were elected to the Hall of Fame,
were elected under the category of “Player,”
played their entire career in the shot-clock era (1954–55 to present), and
had a minimum of 400 games played in the NBA.
That gave me 116 Hall of Famers. My feeling was that players who met the criteria above were players who were elected primarily for their NBA accomplishments, although there are some obvious exceptions (e.g., Arvydas Sabonis).
The Hall of Famers were awarded points in eight different categories:
Games Played: Award the player one point for every 40 games played above 400, with a limit of 15 points.
Points Per Game: Award the player one point for every 0.5 point per game above 10.0, with a limit of 20 points.
Rebounds Per Game: Award the player one point for every 0.5 rebound per game above 5.0, with a limit of 10 points.
Assists Per Game: Award the player one point for every 0.5 assist per game above 5.0, with a limit of five points.
All-Star Selections: Award the player one point for each All-Star selection, with a limit of 10 points.
All-NBA Selections: Award the player two points for each All-NBA selection (any team), with a limit of 10 points.
Championships: Award the player three points for every championship team he played on, with a limit of 15 points.
MVP Awards: Award the player five points for every MVP Award he won, with a limit of 15 points.
The maximum possible score is 100. The median Hall of Famer has a score of 50 (Alex English, Spencer Haywood, Jason Kidd, and Tracy McGrady), the maximum score was 95 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), and the minimum score was nine (Sabonis).
I don’t necessarily agree with all of the weights or categories, but based on past election results those seem to be the things that the voters have deemed most important.
Let me go through an example using Bill Russell:
Games Played: Russell played in 963 games: (963 – 400) / 40 = 14.1. Dropping the decimal, he earns 14 points in this category.
Points Per Game: Russell averaged 15.1 PPG for his career: (15.1 – 10) / 0.5 = 10.2. He earns 10 points in this category.
Rebounds Per Game: Russell averaged 22.5 RPG for his career: (22.5 – 5) / 0.5 = 35. This is above the limit for this category, so credit him with 10 points.
Assists Per Game: Russell averaged 4.3 APG for his career, which is less than the threshold of 5.0 APG. He doesn’t earn any points in this category.
All-Star Selections: Russell was selected to play in 12 All-Star Games, or 12 points. This is above the limit for this category, so credit him with 10 points.
All-NBA Selections: Russell earned 11 All-NBA selections: 11 x 2 = 22. This is above the limit for this category, so credit him with 10 points.
Championships: Russell’s Celtics won 11 NBA championships: 11 × 3 = 33. This is above the limit for this category, so credit him with 15 points.
MVP Awards: Russell won five MVP awards: 5 × 5 = 25. This is above the limit for this category, so credit him with 15 points.
Adding it all up, Russell’s score is 84 points, which puts him in seventh place among players eligible for the Hall of Fame:
95 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
90 — Magic Johnson
88 — Larry Bird
88 — Tim Duncan
87 — Michael Jordan
86 — Wilt Chamberlain
84 — Bill Russell
83 — Moses Malone
82 — Shaquille O’Neal
76 — Hakeem Olajuwon
That’s not a bad list. I don’t agree with the order, but the system’s purpose is to identify viable Hall of Fame candidates, not rank players.
As I mentioned earlier, the median score for the Hall of Famers included in this study was 50. Among all qualifying players — that is, players who are eligible for the Hall of Fame, spent their entire career in the shot-clock era, and played at least 400 games in the NBA — we find:
A total of 58 had a score of 50 or above; all of these players are in the Hall of Fame.
A total of 41 had a score between 40 and 49 points; 30 of these players (73.2%) are in the Hall of Fame.
A total of 77 had a score between 30 and 39 points; 14 of these players (18.2%) are in the Hall of Fame.
A total of 143 had a score between 20 and 29 points; 12 of these players (8.4%) are in the Hall of Fame.
The only Hall of Famers with a score less than 20 are the aforementioned Sabonis and Bill Bradley (19 points), who had a legendary amateur career.
So, it seems once a player reaches 20 points he becomes a fringe Hall of Fame candidate, at 30 points he’s a feasible candidate, at 40 points he’s a strong candidate, and at 50 points he’s a virtual lock.
Based on this system, here are the top five players (six, with ties) eligible for the Hall of Fame who have not yet been elected:
49 — Amar’e Stoudemire
43 — Shawn Marion
42 — Walter Davis
42 — Marques Johnson
42 — Mark Aguirre
42 — Shawn Kemp
Amar’e Stoudemire is an interesting case. Stoudemire is one of 49 eligible players to earn at least five All-Star selections and five All-NBA nods (six and five, respectively). He’s the only player in that group who has not been elected to the Hall of Fame. I think Stoudemire has only gone through two election cycles, so my belief is he will eventually be elected.
I have previously written extensively about the Hall of Fame cases for Shawn Marion and Marques Johnson.
Who are the top five retired players who have not yet been considered for the Hall?
57 — Carmelo Anthony
56 — LaMarcus Aldridge
40 — Vince Carter
36 — Joe Johnson
34 — Marc Gasol
I’m very confident Carmelo Anthony and Vince Carter will be elected, probably on their first ballot. Given that LaMarcus Aldridge has a score well above 50, I think he will eventually be selected as well, although he may have to wait a few election cycles.
Joe Johnson was a compiler — he’s one of only 16 players in NBA history to reach 20,000 points, 5,000 rebounds, and 5,000 assists — but his career averages are not especially noteworthy. Although Johnson was a seven-time All-Star, he was only named All-NBA once (2009-10, Third Team) and never won a championship.
Based solely on his NBA career, Marc Gasol’s case isn’t especially strong. However, I can see Gasol getting in once his international play is taken into account. Gasol is a two-time silver medalist at the Olympics, two-time gold medalist at the FIBA World Cup, and five-time EuroBasket medalist (two gold, one silver, and two bronze).
Finally, here are the top 10 active players (12, with ties):
91 — LeBron James
76 — Stephen Curry
69 — Kevin Durant
68 — Russell Westbrook
66 — Giannis Antetokounmpo
65 — James Harden
65 — Nikola Jokic
55 — Anthony Davis
55 — Chris Paul
49 — Damian Lillard
49 — Paul George
49 — Blake Griffin
The first 10 players listed above are locks, with Nikola Jokic being the only one who was not named to the NBA’s 75th Anniversary Team. Paul George and Blake Griffin both have solid resumes, although in my opinion George’s case is slightly stronger. I think they’ll both eventually get the call.
Let me wrap this up by stating very clearly that I am not advocating the use of a system such as this one to determine who should or should not be in the Hall of Fame. Rather, the system can be used to help produce answers to questions like:
Who are the top candidates for the Hall of Fame?
Who are the most questionable Hall of Fame selections?
Do the accomplishments of (insert favorite candidate’s name here) measure up to those of other Hall of Famers?
In other words, the system is designed to aid in the search for a final answer, not produce the final answer. Statistics are a wonderful tool, but they don’t always tell a complete story.
Postscript: The great Bob Rathbun asked if I would publish the entire list. Below are the scores for all 116 Hall of Famers included in the study. Once again, this is not how I would order these players if asked to rank them 1 to 116:
95 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
90 — Magic Johnson
88 — Larry Bird
88 — Tim Duncan
87 — Michael Jordan
86 — Wilt Chamberlain
84 — Bill Russell
83 — Moses Malone
82 — Shaquille O'Neal
76 — Hakeem Olajuwon
75 — Kobe Bryant
75 — Karl Malone
75 — David Robinson
73 — Oscar Robertson
72 — John Havlicek
72 — Bob Pettit
70 — Charles Barkley
68 — Kevin Garnett
68 — Elvin Hayes
68 — Dirk Nowitzki
64 — Patrick Ewing
64 — Dwyane Wade
63 — Isiah Thomas
61 — Elgin Baylor
61 — Clyde Drexler
61 — Julius Erving
61 — Scottie Pippen
61 — Willis Reed
60 — Jerry West
59 — Dave Cowens
59 — Tom Heinsohn
59 — Allen Iverson
59 — Bob McAdoo
57 — Pau Gasol
57 — Robert Parish
57 — Dominique Wilkins
56 — Hal Greer
56 — Steve Nash
56 — Paul Pierce
55 — Chris Bosh
54 — Jerry Lucas
54 — Chris Webber
53 — Rick Barry
53 — Walt Frazier
53 — Bailey Howell
53 — Tony Parker
53 — Mitch Richmond
52 — Ray Allen
52 — Sam Jones
52 — Gary Payton
51 — Nate Archibald
51 — Billy Cunningham
51 — Bob Lanier
51 — Kevin McHale
50 — Alex English
50 — Spencer Haywood
50 — Jason Kidd
50 — Tracy McGrady
49 — Walt Bellamy
49 — Dave DeBusschere
48 — George Gervin
48 — James Worthy
47 — Dave Bing
47 — Grant Hill
46 — Tim Hardaway
46 — Yao Ming
46 — John Stockton
45 — Joe Dumars
45 — Alonzo Mourning
45 — Jack Sikma
45 — Chet Walker
44 — Adrian Dantley
44 — Bernard King
43 — Chris Mullin
43 — Dennis Rodman
42 — Bob Dandridge
42 — Artis Gilmore
42 — Gail Goodrich
42 — Reggie Miller
41 — Dennis Johnson
41 — Gus Johnson
41 — Nate Thurmond
41 — Jack Twyman
41 — Ben Wallace
41 — Jo Jo White
40 — Lou Hudson
40 — Wes Unseld
40 — Lenny Wilkens
39 — Manu Ginobili
39 — Cliff Hagan
39 — Pete Maravich
39 — Earl Monroe
39 — Dikembe Mutombo
39 — Jamaal Wilkes
37 — Richie Guerin
37 — Paul Westphal
35 — Sidney Moncrief
34 — Bill Walton
33 — Dan Issel
33 — George McGinnis
31 — Calvin Murphy
30 — David Thompson
28 — Zelmo Beaty
27 — Maurice Cheeks
27 — Connie Hawkins
27 — Frank Ramsey
25 — Vlade Divac
25 — Tom Gola
25 — Charlie Scott
24 — Guy Rodgers
24 — Ralph Sampson
23 — Toni Kukoc
21 — K.C. Jones
20 — Bobby Jones
19 — Bill Bradley
9 — Arvydas Sabonis
Mind publishing your entire list? Where did you have Nique? Thanks!
Justin, I like this concept! I'll examine it more in detail later.
A couple of quick comments: First, Magic and Bird each had relatively short careers (c. 34K MP), so this system must emphasize proficiency over cumulative. Having their HOF point totals near Kareem (57K MP) and LeBron (54K MP) seems off to me.
Second, I think the HOF points for PPG, RPG, and APG are a little off. Throughout NBA history per 48 MP, players have averaged about 21 PPG, 9 RPG, and 4 APG. So maybe those average numbers should be the threshold. Also, I would do it per minute, not per game. Finally, I think you should adjust for context, especially for rebounding.