Better Late Than Never
Players who produced most of their career value after turning 30 years old.
While there have been a handful of players who made an impact the moment they stepped on an NBA court, most need time to establish themselves in the league. For some, that process takes longer than others. Today, I’m going to look at players who produced most of their career value after turning 30 years old.
How did I calculate a player’s career value? For each season, I did the following:
Calculate the player’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER).
Divide his PER by 15 (the league average).
Multiply the quotient above by his minutes played.
Thus, players who are above average will have more value than minutes and players who are below average will have less value than minutes (for players who are average, value and minutes will be equal).
To get a career score, I just found the sum of each player’s seasonal values. For this post, I also calculated the player’s value in his age-30 season* and beyond so I could see what percentage of his career value was generated late in his career.
* Player age is calculated on Feb. 1 of the given campaign, which is roughly the halfway point of the regular season.
Let’s use Jaren Jackson Sr. as an example. Here’s his value by season:
1989-90 (age 22) — 115
1990-91 (age 23) — DNP
1991-92 (age 24) — 44
1992-93 (age 25) — 263
1993-94 (age 26) — 118
1994-95 (age 27) — 149
1995-96 (age 28) — 3
1996-97 (age 29) — 761
1997-98 (age 30) — 1,446
1998-99 (age 31) — 715
1999-00 (age 32) — 1,094
2000-01 (age 33) — 79
2001-02 (age 34) — 69
Jackson produced 70.1% of his career value in his age-30 season forward. That percentage ranks eighth among players with at least 10 seasons played in the NBA:
89.0% — ???
77.3% — ???
76.9% — ???
75.4% — Joe Ingles
73.1% — Ron Anderson
71.8% — Sam Cassell
70.6% — Connie Dierking
70.1% — Jaren Jackson
69.8% — Sean Marks
68.5% — Garrett Temple
Which players occupy the top three spots on the list above? I’m going to go into greater detail on them below, starting with number three.
Mario Elie
Before: 3,749 (23.1%)
After: 12,501 (76.9%)
Unlike the next two players, Elie did not go undrafted out of college. That said, he was the 160th overall pick in the seventh round of the 1985 NBA Draft, so Elie clearly wasn't a highly-regarded prospect.
After being cut in training camp by the Milwaukee Bucks, Elie began a five-year odyssey in which he made stops in Ireland, Miami (Fla.), Argentina, Portugal, Youngstown (Ohio), and Albany (N.Y.).
Elie made his NBA debut with the Philadelphia 76ers on Dec. 28, 1990 at the age of 27. After appearing in just three games with the Sixers, he moved on to the Golden State Warriors, where he played 30 games.
Elise spent the entire 1991-92 season with the Warriors, then signed as a veteran free agent with the Portland Trail Blazers. After just one season in Portland, Elie was traded to the Houston Rockets, where he would remain for the next five seasons.
In 1993-94, his age-30 season, Elie averaged 9.3 PPG in 67 games and received a first-place vote for Sixth Man of the Year. The Rockets win on to win the NBA title that season, the first of Elie's three championships.
Elie continued to be a reliable bench player in 1994-95, averaging 8.8 PPG in 81 games with 49.9/39.8/84.2 shooting splits. He was even better in the postseason, averaging 9.1 PPG on 64.3% true shooting as the Rockets won their second consecutive title.
After three more seasons in Houston, Elie moved on to the San Antonio Spurs, where he won his final ring in 1998-99. He started 37 of his 47 contests in the regular season and all 17 games in the Spurs' playoff run.
Elie spent one more season in San Antonio, then played the 2000-01 campaign with the Phoenix Suns. Although he started 67 games for the Suns, Elie averaged just 4.4 PPG while shooting 42.3% from the field and 79.7% from the free throw line (all three figures were career lows). After just one season in Phoenix, he retired at the age of 37.
Bruce Bowen
Before: 2,968 (22.7%)
After: 10,119 (77.3%)
After a senior season at Cal State Fullerton in which he averaged 16.3 PPG and was named All-Big West Conference First Team, Bowen was bypassed in the 1993 NBA Draft. He spent the next four seasons playing in France and the Continental Basketball Association (CBA) before finally being signed to a 10-day contract by the Miami Heat in March 1997.
After appearing in just a single game with the Heat, Bowen signed with the Boston Celtics for the 1997-98 season. Now 26 years old, he averaged 21.4 MPG in 61 appearances.
Bowen spent one more season in Boston (just 30 games played) and split the 1999-00 season between the Philadelphia 76ers (42 games) and the Heat (27 games). He stayed in Miami for the entire 2000-01 season, establishing himself as one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Bowen averaged 32.7 MPG in 82 games, earning All-Defensive Second Team honors and picking up two third-place votes in the Defensive Player of the Year balloting.
Now a desired free agent, Bowen signed with the San Antonio Spurs on July 31, 2001, about six weeks after his 30th birthday. Over the next eight seasons with the Spurs, he earned All-Defensive recognition seven times (five First Team nods), finished as runner-up in the Defensive Player of the Year Award voting three times, and won three NBA titles.
After making just 34.9% of his 3-point shots through his age-29 season, Bowen developed into a reliable long-range shooter in San Antonio, knocking down 40.5% of his attempts. He led the NBA in 3-point marksmanship in 2002-03, hitting 44.1% of his triples.
Following the 2008-09 season, Bowen was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks, who subsequently released him. On September 3, 2009, Bowen announced his retirement from the NBA.
Darrell Armstrong
Before: 2,387 (11.0%)
After: 19,313 (89.0%)
A 6-foot-1-inch guard out of Division II Fayetteville State University, Armstrong was not selected in the 1991 NBA Draft. After bouncing around various other professional leagues for almost four seasons, Armstrong was picked up near the end of the 1994-95 campaign by the Orlando Magic.
After appearing in just 16 total games in his age-26 and age-27 seasons, Armstrong finally started seeing some playing time in 1996-97, averaging 15.1 MPG in 67 games off the bench. However, by the time the 1997-98 season had concluded, Armstrong’s age-29 campaign, he had appeared in just 131 NBA contests.
Armstrong finally made a breakthrough in the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season, averaging 13.8 PPG, 6.7 APG (12th in the NBA), and 2.2 SPG (eighth) while playing all 50 games. He also ranked third in the league in free throw percentage (90.3%) and 15th in effective field goal percentage (50.7%). Armstrong was handsomely rewarded for his efforts, taking home both the Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year Awards.
Armstrong became a full-time starter the following season, averaging a career-high 16.2 PPG, 6.1 APG (16th in the NBA), and 2.1 SPG (third) in 82 games. He once again finished third in the league in free throw percentage (career-high 91.1%) and placed seventh in 3-pointers made (137).
Armstrong spent three more seasons with the Magic before departing as a free agent following the 2002-03 season. In his last five seasons in Orlando, Armstrong averaged 13.5 PPG, 5.8 APG, and 1.9 SPG while missing just seven games (all in the 2000-01 campaign).
Armstrong bounced around for the final five seasons of his NBA career, playing for four different franchises. He made his final appearance with the New Jersey Nets on April 15, 2008 at the age of 39, scoring 10 points and dishing out five assists in just 16 minutes of action.
I thought guys like Arvydas Sabonis, Prigioni, Teodosic, or Oberto might be on the list, but then I realized they all made their NBA debuts after turning 30. Also, it was a bit surprising to see Cassell on the list, considering he made an impact from his rookie year and stayed relevant throughout his entire career.