8 Comments
User's avatar
Monsieur Mike de Substack's avatar

this is incredibly cool

Andrew's avatar

L = -37.7 + 0.40 * 26.4

+ 0.46 * 12.4

+ 0.49 * 9.0

+ 26.6 * 0.695

= 1.39

this equals 1.46. Am I missing something?

Justin Kubatko's avatar

No, it's because I didn't display many decimals. This should give you 1.39:

-37.65512 + 0.39909 * 26.3924 + 0.45562 * 12.3544 + 0.48969 * 8.9620 + 26.61089 * 0.6951

Andrew's avatar

Oh, gotcha. I'm curious, do you know what the formula is now? Because the tracker's probability for your example of 2024 doesn't match those given here. Joker ended at 56.5% for example.

Andrew's avatar

Oh, the one on basketball reference now

Justin Kubatko's avatar

I don't know what formula they're using now. I haven't been affiliated with Sports Reference for some time.

Oded Ross's avatar

Are you sure that media voters don't take advanced stats such as WS or PER into account, even though they should?