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George Rising's avatar

Justin, I think this is great! For me, the key is comparing apples to apples: RS seasons to the same PO season, which is what you do here. Too many commentators just compare overall RS to overall PO. I love what you did here!

However, I'd take it a step farther and compare RS to PO in two ways: First, compare PO performance to a standard FOR EACH SEASON. For example, I used playoff standards of 22.7 PER, .180 WS/48, AND 6.5. Then, find how often a player exceeded those standards. For example, Jordan in 13 playoffs exceeded those standards 36 of 39 POs (92%), which was the highest percentage of the top 25 players I examined. After MJ:

87% LeBron

77% West

72% Magic

65% Wilt

63% Durant

63% Kawhi

63% CP3

58% Robinson

57% Duncan

Second--and this is more directly connected to your article--I compared playoff PER, WS/48, BPM to regular season PER, WS/48, BPM (adjusting for the difference in RS and PO; for example, I found PER in PO averaged 0.94 of RS PER; I think this is the same adjustment that you found). Then, I examined how often PO exceeded PO. Jordan's PO (adjusted) exceeded his (raw) RS in PER, WS/48, PER in 32 of 39 times (82%), which was the highest. Next highest were:

81% Kawhi

77% West

70% Isiah

69% Russell

69% Olajuwon

67% Dirk

63% Durant

60% LeBron

60% Oscar

58% Wilt

Jordan and West rank high in both exceeding the standard and also their own PO > RS. Isiah and Russell were each low in meeting the standard but high in their own PO > RS. Lowest in both meeting the standard and PO > RS were Karl Malone (no surprise) and ... Larry Bird!!! Kobe was also near the bottom in both!

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Andy Lathom's avatar

He's only at 1049 minutes, but could you calculate Luka's figures for me? Playoff Luka is a thing, right? 🔥✌🏼

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