Rookie of the Year Rundown, Part 2
How often does the Rookie of the Year end up having the best career?
This is the second of two posts in which I examine how often the NBA’s Rookie of the Year Award winner goes on to have the best career. Part 1 of this series was posted about a month ago and covers the first 30 selections. Part 2 is below, where I cover the 1982-83 through 2011-12 seasons.
1982-83: Terry Cummings (winner), Dominique Wilkins (best career)
Cummings had a great rookie campaign, averaging 23.7 PPG and 10.6 RPG in 70 games with a field goal percentage of 52.3% for the San Diego Clippers. He had to sit out the last two weeks of the regular season due to heartbeat irregularities, a condition that was thankfully resolved. Although Cummings would go on to have a fine career (16.4 PPG and 7.3 RPG in 1,183 games), his rookie figures for PPG, RPG, and field goal percentage would end up being his single-season bests.
Wilkins, who did not receive any Rookie of the Year votes, was a nine-time All-Star and seven-time All-NBA selection, averaging 24.8 PPG in 1,074 career games. He recorded seven straight 2,000-point seasons from 1984-85 through 1990-91, tied for the third-longest such streak in NBA history.
1983-84: Ralph Sampson (winner), Clyde Drexler (best career)
Sampson is one of the most compelling “What Ifs?” in NBA history. A three-time consensus NCAA Player of the Year at Virginia, Sampson was named to the All-Star team in each of his first four seasons with the Houston Rockets, averaging 19.9 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 1.9 BPG with a field goal percentage of 50.3% over that span.
However, he suffered a serious knee injury in February of his fourth season, and rushed his rehab in order to return for the playoffs. That decision would end up having serious consequences, as he would spend just five more seasons in the NBA, appearing in a total of 170 games.
The 14th overall pick in the 1983 NBA Draft by the Portland Trail Blazers, Drexler was a 10-time All-Star and one-time NBA champion (with the Houston Rockets), averaging 20.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.6 APG, and 2.0 SPG in 1,086 games. Excluding active players, he’s one of only six players in league history with career averages of at least 20 PPG, 5 RPG, and 5 APG.
1984-85: Michael Jordan (winner & best career)
Jordan had one of the greatest rookie season in league history, averaging 28.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 5.9 APG, and 2.4 SPG in 82 games, with shooting percentages of 51.5% from the field and 84.5% from the free throw line. He transformed not just the Chicago Bulls’ franchise, but the entire NBA.
Jordan was a member of the greatest draft class in NBA history, a group that also featured Charles Barkley, Hakeem Olajuwon, and John Stockton. They accounted for 47 All-NBA nods, six more than any other draft class. Olajuwon led the way with 12 selections, followed by Barkley, Jordan, and Stockton with 11 apiece.
1985-86: Patrick Ewing (winner), Karl Malone (best career)
Ewing appeared in just 61% of the New York Knicks’ games in his debut season, still the lowest such figure in NBA history by a Rookie of the Year Award winner. No other rookie really stood out that season, though, and Ewing did average 20.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 2.1 BPG in his 50 games.
Malone averaged 14.9 PPG and 8.9 RPG for the Utah Jazz as a rookie, then proceeded to average at least 20 PPG while missing two or fewer games in each of his next 17 seasons. No other player in NBA history has recorded more than nine such seasons in a row.
1986-87: Chuck Person (winner), Dennis Rodman (best career)
The Indiana Pacers’ Person received 68 of the 78 votes cast for Rookie of the Year, with the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Ron Harper getting the remaining 10. Person averaged 18.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG in 82 games for a 41-41 playoff team, while Harper produced 22.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.8 APG, and 2.5 SPG playing all 82 games for a 31-51 squad. Harper, however, shot just 68.4% from the free throw line and committed a league-high 345 turnovers, still the most ever by a rookie.
I should note that Harper was named to the NBA’s All-Rookie First Team along with teammates Brad Daugherty and Hot Rod Williams. The only other team in NBA history to feature three such players is the 1964-65 New York Knicks (Willis Reed, Howard Komives, and Jim Barnes). The 1986-87 Cavaliers also had a fourth rookie, Mark Price, who would go on to earn four All-NBA nods.
I’ve made the argument that Rodman, a five-time NBA champion, was the greatest rebounder in league history. While he was a limited offensive player, both the quantitative and qualitative evidence suggest Rodman was an elite defender.
1987-88: Mark Jackson (winner), Scottie Pippen (best career)
Jackson averaged 13.6 PPG, 10.6 APG (third in the NBA), and 2.5 SPG (sixth) in 82 games for the New York Knicks. He set a still-standing rookie record with 868 assists, 178 more than the next closest player (Oscar Robertson). Jackson remains the only rookie in NBA history to average at least 10 APG.
The choice for best career came down to Pippen versus Reggie Miller. Miller was one of the most efficient volume scorers in NBA history, but Pippen’s list of accomplishments — seven All-NBA nods, 10 All-Defensive selections, and six championship rings — was just too much to overcome.
1988-89: Mitch Richmond (winner & best career)
Richmond averaged at least 20 PPG in each of the first 10 seasons of his career, earning six straight All-Star nods at the end of that run. He was also a five-time All-NBA selection over that span.
An underrated player from this rookie class was Hersey Hawkins, who averaged 14.7 PPG and 1.7 SPG with 46.1/39.4/87.0 shooting splits in his 983-game career. Hawkins was durable, missing three or fewer games in each of his first 11 seasons (he played in all of his team’s games seven times over that span).
1989-90: David Robinson (winner & best career)
Robinson, the top overall pick in the 1987 NBA Draft, had to delay his basketball career for two years in order to fulfill a commitment to the U.S. Navy. In his rookie season, the San Antonio Spurs saw a 35-win improvement, going from 21-61 to 56-26. Robinson averaged 24.3 PPG, 12.0 RPG, and 3.9 BPG with a field goal percentage of 53.1%, winning the Rookie of the Year Award by unanimous vote.
Despite his size (7 feet 1 inch, 235 pounds), Robinson was extremely agile, recording at least 250 blocks and 100 steals in a season seven times. That’s the most such seasons by a player since the NBA began tracking those statistics in 1973-74.
1990-91: Derrick Coleman (winner), Gary Payton (best career)
The enigmatic Coleman averaged 19.9 PPG and 10.6 RPG for the New Jersey Nets through his first five seasons, earning two All-NBA Third Team nods. Although he would spend 10 more seasons in the league, off-the-court issues (including alcoholism and numerous arrests) derailed his once-promising career.
It took Payton a while to get going, but in his fourth season he started a run of nine consecutive All-Defensive First Team selections, the longest such streak in NBA history. He also earned nine All-NBA nods over that stretch.
1991-92: Larry Johnson (winner), Dikembe Mutombo (best career)
Johnson looked like he was on his way to becoming one of the best power forwards in NBA history. After averaging 19.2 PPG and 11.0 RPG in 82 games as a rookie, he went for 22.1 PPG and 10.5 RPG in 82 games in his second season, earning All-NBA Second Team recognition. However, a back injury in his third season zapped him of some of his explosiveness, and although Johnson remained a quality player, he never again reached the heights of his sophomore campaign.
Mutombo was expected to make an impact on the defensive end for the Denver Nuggets, but his offensive production as a rookie was somewhat surprising (16.6 PPG on 49.3% shooting from the floor). That would end up being Mutombo’s highest-scoring season in the NBA, but he more than made up for his lack of offense with a record four Defensive Player of the Year Awards (since tied by Ben Wallace and Rudy Gobert).
1992-93: Shaquille O'Neal (winner & best career)
The 20-year-old O’Neal was a force as a rookie with the Orlando Magic, averaging 23.4 PPG (eighth in the NBA), 13.9 RPG (second), and 3.5 BPG (second) in 81 games with a field goal percentage of 56.2% (fourth). The Magic improved from 21-61 to 41-41 in O’Neal’s debut campaign, then made the franchise’s first playoff appearance in his second season.
A four-time champion and three-time Finals MVP, O’Neal averaged at least 20 PPG and 10 RPG with 55% shooting from the field in each of his first 13 seasons. No other player in NBA history has recorded more than seven such seasons in a row at any point in their career.
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1993-94: Chris Webber (winner & best career)
Webber had an impressive debut season with the Golden State Warriors, averaging 17.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 2.2 BPG (ninth in the NBA) in 76 games with a field goal percentage of 55.2% (fourth). However, he and head coach Don Nelson did not see eye-to-eye on the best way to use Webber.
Nelson had a propensity to employ smaller lineups, which meant the 6-foot-10-inch Webber often played extended minutes at the center position. Webber — a great passer with good ball-handling skills for someone his size — did not see himself as a classic post player and grew irritated with Nelson’s use of him. Unfortunately for the Warriors, Webber’s contract had a one-year escape clause, which he threatened to exercise after concluding that he could no longer play for Nelson.
On November 19, 1994, an end to the impasse was reached when Webber was dealt to the Washington Bullets for Tom Gugliotta and three first-round draft picks. He went on to have his most success with the Sacramento Kings, earning All-NBA honors in five consecutive seasons (1998-99 to 2002-03).
1994-95: Grant Hill & Jason Kidd (co-winners), Kidd (best career)
Looking back, the tie between Hill and Kidd doesn’t make a lot of sense, as Kidd was a horribly inefficient shooter (38.5/27.2/69.8 shooting splits) with a propensity for turnovers (250, seventh in the NBA). In my opinion, Hill should have been the clear choice, producing 19.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 5.0 APG, and 1.8 SPG in 70 games. The leading scorer among rookies that season was actually Glenn Robinson, who averaged 21.9 PPG (10th in the NBA) in 80 games for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Hill’s carer was derailed by chronic foot problems. He was a five-time All-NBA selection in his first six seasons with the Detroit Pistons, averaging 21.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and 6.3 APG in 435 games. The only other players in NBA history to average at least 20 PPG, 6 RPG, and 6 APG through their first six seasons are Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Luka Doncic.
Kidd was a tremendous two-way player, earning nine All-Defensive selections and six All-NBA nods. He ranks second on the league’s career leaderboard for steals (2,684), third for assists (12,091), and sixth for triple-doubles (107).
1995-96: Damon Stoudamire (winner), Kevin Garnett (best career)
Strictly speaking, I think the Portland Trail Blazers’ Arvydas Sabonis, the runner-up in the voting, was the league’s best rookie in 1995-96. However, the 31-year-old Sabonis was a seasoned international competitor, so I can understand why the voters opted for the Toronto Raptors’ Stoudamire (19.0 PPG and 9.3 APG in 70 games). Despite playing less than 24 MPG, Sabonis averaged 14.5 PPG and 8.1 RPG with 54.5/37.5/75.7 shooting splits.
Garnett earned 15 All-Star selections, five more than the rest of this rookie class combined. He was a 12-time All-Defensive selection and nine-time All-NBA choice, averaging 17.8 PPG and 10.0 RPG in 1,462 games. Garnett is the only player to rank in the top 60 on the NBA’s career leaderboards for points (20th), rebounds (ninth), assists (56th), steals (19th), and blocks (18th).
1996-97: Allen Iverson (winner), Kobe Bryant (best career)
Although they didn’t all excel in their debut seasons, this was a loaded class that featured five future Hall of Famers: Iverson, Bryant, Ray Allen, Steve Nash, and Ben Wallace. Iverson was the best of the bunch as a rookie, averaging 23.5 PPG (sixth in the NBA), 7.5 APG (11th) and 2.1 SPG (seventh) in 76 games for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Bryant entered the NBA at the tender age of 18 and was brought along somewhat slowly, but he was an All-NBA Third Team selection by his third season. That was the first of 15 consecutive All-NBA nods for Bryant, the second-longest such streak in league history (LeBron James, 20). He was also a well-regarded defender, being named to 12 All-Defensive teams, including a record-tying nine First Team selections.
1997-98: Tim Duncan (winner & best career)
Duncan — who averaged 21.1 PPG (13th in the NBA), 11.9 RPG (third), and 2.5 BPG (sixth) with a field goal percentage of 54.9% (fourth) as a rookie — is the last player to earn All-NBA First Team honors in his debut season. He’s the only rookie to finish in the top five of the MVP voting since the ballot was expanded to five places in 1980-81.
The metronomic Duncan spent his entire 19-season career with the Spurs, averaging 19.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, and 2.2 BPG with a field goal percentage of 50.6% in 1,392 games. A 15-time All-NBA and 15-time All-Defensive selection, he won five NBA titles, three Finals MVP Awards, and two MVP Awards.
1998-99: Vince Carter (winner), Dirk Nowitzki (best career)
Carter averaged 18.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 1.5 BPG for the Toronto Raptors in his rookie campaign, appearing in all 50 games in the lockout-shortened season. He played a record 22 seasons (tied with LeBron James), and is the only player in NBA history to appear in a game in four different decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s).
Nowitzki’s career got off to a slow start, as he averaged just 8.2 PPG on 40.5/20.6/77.3 shooting splits as a rookie. Nowitzki boosted his scoring average to 17.5 PPG with shooting percentages of 46.1/37.9/83.0 in his second season, though, and earned the first of 12 consecutive All-NBA selections in his third campaign.
1999-00: Elton Brand & Steve Francis (co-winners), Shawn Marion (best career)
Brand averaged 20.3 PPG and 10.2 RPG with a field goal percentage of 50.5% through his first eight seasons, but ruptured his left Achilles tendon in August 2007. Even though he played an additional nine seasons after the injury, he was never again the same player.
The player he shared the award with, Francis, also got off to a fast start, averaging 19.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 6.4 APG with three All-Star selections in his first five seasons. However, he would only spend four more seasons in the NBA due to injuries and off-the-court issues.
Marion was somewhat underrated during his playing days, and he has what I feel is a strong case for the Hall of Fame. While Marion did not have a signature skill that made people stand up and take notice, he was an incredibly well-rounded player. Since the NBA introduced the 3-point shot in 1979-80, he and LeBron James are the only players to record at least 1,500 steals, 1,000 blocks, and 500 threes made.
2000-01: Mike Miller (winner), Michael Redd (best career)
Miller’s debut statistics were rather pedestrian (11.9 PPG on 43.6/40.7/71.1 shooting splits), but he was the best of a weak rookie crop. Only three Rookie of the Year Award winners have recorded a lower scoring average: Malcolm Brogdon (10.2), Monk Meineke (10.7), and Kidd (11.7).
Redd was the only player from this class to go on to earn All-NBA recognition, a single Third Team selection in 2003-04. He averaged 19.0 PPG on 44.7/38.0/83.8 shooting splits in 629 career games.
2001-02: Pau Gasol (winner & best career)
Gasol helped turn around a moribund Memphis Grizzlies franchise, leading them to the first of three consecutive playoff berths in his third season. Prior to drafting Gasol, the Grizzlies had a cumulative record of 101-359 (.220) with zero postseason appearances in their six seasons of existence.
Gasol would go on to have his best seasons with the Los Angeles Lakers, winning two championship rings in the process. He posted career averages of 17.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG, and 1.6 BPG in 1,226 games, shooting 50.7% from the field and 75.3% from the foul line.
2002-03: Amar’e Stoudemire (winner), Manu Ginobili (best career)
I think Yao Ming (13.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 49.8 FG%, 81.1 FT%) had a better rookie season than Stoudemire (13.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 47.2 FG%, 66.1 FT%), but Stoudemire won a close vote by 53 points. Both players appeared in all 82 games, so the deciding factor was most likely age (Yao was 22 years old and had international experience, while Stoudemire went straight to the NBA from high school).
Selected by the San Antonio Spurs with the next-to-last pick in the 1999 NBA Draft, Ginobili was one of the biggest steals in draft history. He won four NBA titles with the Spurs, averaging 13.3 PPG and 1.3 SPG with 44.7/36.9/82.7 shooting splits in 1,057 games. His career totals were deflated by his role, as he started just 349 games and averaged more than 30 MPG only twice (both All-NBA seasons).
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2003-04: LeBron James (winner & best career)
James has essentially had two Hall of Fame careers:
First 11 seasons: 842 GP, 27.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.7 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 49.7/34.1/74.7 shooting splits
Last 11 seasons: 685 GP, 26.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 8.1 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 51.8/35.7/71.7 shooting splits
He’s the only player to rank in the top 30 on the NBA’s all-time lists for points (first), rebounds (28th), and assists (fourth). The only other player to even rank in the top 50 in all three categories is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (second in points, third in rebounds, and 50th in assists).
2004-05: Emeka Okafor (winner), Dwight Howard (best career)
Although the Charlotte Bobcats’ Okafor easily won the balloting over the Chicago Bulls’ Ben Gordon, I would have voted for the Orlando Magic’s Howard for Rookie of the Year. The 19-year-old Howard played all 82 games, averaging 12.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and 1.7 BPG, figures that are similar to Okafor’s 15.1 PPG, 10.9 RPG, and 1.7 BPG. Howard ranked 10th out of 112 qualifying players with a field goal percentage of 52.0%, much higher than Okafor’s 64th-place finish (44.7%). And despite being a notoriously poor free throw shooter, Howard outshot Okafor from the free throw line, 67.1% to 60.9%.
Over an eight-season stretch from 2006-07 to 2013-14, Howard averaged 19.5 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 2.3 BPG with a field goal percentage of 59.0%. He was named to one of the All-NBA teams each season of that span, winning three straight Defensive Player of the Year Awards.
2005-06: Chris Paul (winner & best career)
Paul was not an efficient scorer in his debut season, posting the lowest effective field goal percentage (45.6%) and 3-point field goal percentage (28.2%) of his career. That said, he averaged 16.1 PPG, 7.8 APG (seventh in the NBA), 5.1 RPG, and 2.2 SPG (third) in 78 games and was an easy selection for Rookie of the Year, receiving all but one first-place vote.
An 11-time All-NBA and nine-time All-Defensive selection, Paul ranks second all time in assists (12,217) and third in steals (2,669). He’s led the league in steals per game six times, three more such seasons than any other player.
2006-07: Brandon Roy (winner), LaMarcus Aldridge (best career)
Roy is another compelling “What If?” case, as he earned three consecutive All-Star nods (and made two All-NBA teams) after his Rookie of the Year campaign. But in January of his fifth season, Roy underwent arthroscopic surgery on both knees. Although he returned to the Portland Trail Blazers’ lineup less than six weeks later, Roy announced his retirement before the start of the 2011-12 season, saying he lacked cartilage between the bones of both knees. He attempted a comeback in 2012-13 with the Minnesota Timberwolves, but was waived after appearing in just five games.
Aldridge was a steady presence in the post, averaging at least 17 PPG and 7 RPG for 13 consecutive seasons. He was a seven-time All-Star and five-time All-NBA selection, with career averages of 19.1 PPG and 8.1 RPG in 1,076 games.
2007-08: Kevin Durant (winner & best career)
Durant averaged 20.3 PPG in 80 games as a rookie with the Seattle SuperSonics. He’s one of only three teenagers* in NBA history to average at least 20 PPG, the others being Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James (both in 2003-04).
* The player must have been a teenager for the entire season.
Durant is the last Rookie of the Year Award winner on this list who I have also deemed as having the best career. Durant is still an All-NBA-caliber player when healthy, but he’s appeared in just 241 out of a possible 429 games (56.2%) over the last five-plus seasons.
2008-09: Derrick Rose (winner), Russell Westbrook (best career)
Yet another compelling “What If?” case, Rose was the first overall selection in the 2008 NBA Draft by the Chicago Bulls. He was an All-Star by his second season and an MVP Award winner in season number three (he’s still the youngest recipient in league history). I’ve written extensively about Rose’s career here.
While Westbrook certainly has his detractors, he’s put together an impressive career, averaging 21.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 8.1 APG in 1,202 games. Westbrook is the NBA’s all-time leader in triple-doubles with 202, and he’s had four seasons in which he averaged a triple-double. The only other player in league history to average a triple-double for even one season is Oscar Robertson in 1961-62.
2009-10: Tyreke Evans (winner), Stephen Curry (best career)
Evans had a fine debut season with the Sacramento Kings, averaging 20.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 5.8 APG in 72 games. In fact, only four other rookies in NBA history have averaged at least 20 PPG, 5 RPG, and 5 APG: Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Luka Doncic. That season would end up being Evans’ best, though, and he has not appeared in an NBA game since 2019.
Curry is a 10-time All-NBA selection, four-time NBA champion, two-time MVP, and one-time Finals MVP with the Golden State Warriors. He’s the league’s all-time leader in 3-pointers made with 3,889, a whopping 27.7% more than the next closest player (James Harden, who is also a member of this rookie class).
2010-11: Blake Griffin (winner), Paul George (best career)
After sitting out a year with a knee injury, Griffin was named an All-Star in his debut season with the Los Angeles Clippers, averaging 22.5 PPG and 12.1 RPG while appearing in all 82 games. He would average 21.2 PPG and 9.0 RPG with a field goal percentage of 52.9% over the next four seasons, earning four All-NBA nods, but after that injuries would haunt him for the remainder of his career.
George has been a nine-time All-Star, averaging 20.7 PPG with 44.0/38.4/85.3 shooting splits in 894 career games. He ranks ninth on the NBA’s all-time list for 3-pointers made with 2,318.
2011-12: Kyrie Irving (winner), Kawhi Leonard (best career)
Irving picked up 117 out of a possible 120 first-place votes in the Rookie of the Year balloting, averaging 18.5 PPG and 5.4 APG with 46.9/39.9/87.2 shooting splits in 51 games for the Cleveland Cavaliers (the season was shortened to 66 games due to a lockout).
I chose Leonard as the player with the best career for now, but this one is still somewhat up in the air. Leonard has been a six-time All-NBA selection, two-time Defensive Player of the Year, and two-time NBA champion (winning Finals MVP both times), but he has not appeared in more than 68 games since the 2016-17 season. With a strong finish, either Irving or Jimmy Butler could end up surpassing him.