Showdown: Kevin Garnett vs. Dirk Nowitzki

The tale of the tape for two legendary forwards.

Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki are two of the greatest forwards to ever play the game. They each logged 21 seasons, trailing only Vince Carter (22) for the longest career in league history. Nowitzki’s calling cards were his offensive efficiency and volume scoring, while Garnett’s were his versatility and tenacious defense. Who comes out on top when we pit them head-to-head?

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I. Awards and Honors

Let’s take a look at the qualitative information first:

• Both players have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

• Nowitzki was a 12-time All-NBA selection (four First Team, five Second Team, and three Third Team), while Garnett earned nine All-NBA nods (four First Team, three Second Team, and two Third Team).

• Garnett was selected to the All-Defensive team 12 times (nine First Team and three Second Team), an honor Nowitzki never received.

• Nowitzki received MVP votes in 12 different seasons, winning the award once (2006-07). Garnett earned MVP consideration 10 times, also winning once (2003-04).

• Garnett was selected to play in 15 All-Star Games, one more than Nowitzki’s 14 nods (I should also note that Nowitzki’s final selection was an honorary one).

• Garnett won the Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2007-08 and received votes in 13 other seasons, including three runner-up finishes. Nowitzki never received consideration for this award.

• Both players played in two NBA Finals, each winning once (2008 for Garnett and 2011 for Nowitzki). Nowitzki was named Finals MVP in 2011 when he led the Dallas Mavericks to an upset over the favored Miami Heat.

In my opinion the All-Defensive selections and Defensive Player of the Year Award give Garnett the slightest of edges when it comes to awards and honors. Let’s dig a little deeper and see what stories the numbers have to tell us.

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II. Offense

There are many things a player can do on offense to help his team, but the five most important skills are probably the following:

1. Make shots from the field.

2. Get to — and make shots from — the free throw line.

3. Minimize turnovers.

4. Create shots for others.

5. Extend possessions with offensive rebounds.

Let’s compare and contrast Garnett and Nowitzki in these categories.

Make shots from the field

Nowitzki’s career effective field-goal percentage of 51.2% ranks 219th among players with at least 2,000 field goals made, while Garnett’s 50.1% places him 320th all time. That’s a difference of about 22 points per 1,000 shots, which isn’t huge but also isn’t insignificant, and over the course of a long career it adds up.

Verdict: Edge, Nowitzki.

Get to — and make shots from — the free throw line

Nowitzki got to the free throw line almost 20% more often than Garnett, averaging 34.7 free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts compared to 29.3 for Garnett. And when Nowitzki got to the charity stripe he was way more efficient, with a career free throw percentage of 87.9% versus 78.9% for Garnett.

So Nowitzki has a big edge in opportunities — which has the side benefit of getting his opponent in foul trouble — and a huge edge in efficiency. It’s pretty clear who wins this category.

Verdict: Big edge, Nowitzki.

Minimize turnovers

Nowitzki averaged 10.1 turnovers per 100 individual possessions*, while Garnett’s corresponding rate was 13.6. That amounts to about 45 more turnovers for Garnett over a typical season, a figure that can’t be ignored.

* The formula for individual possessions was developed by Dean Oliver. It takes into account most offensive statistics that can be found in the box score.

Verdict: Big edge, Nowitzki.

Create shots for others

Garnett assisted on approximately 19.3% of his teammates’ made field goals while he was on the floor, a rate that dwarfs Nowitzki’s 12.6%. Nowitzki’s season high in assists was 266, a figure Garnett eclipsed nine times.

Verdict: Big edge, Garnett.

Extend possessions with offensive rebounds

Garnett snagged an estimated 7.6 offensive rebounds per 100 opportunities, a rate that more than doubles Nowitzki’s average of 3.3. Since the NBA began tracking offensive rebounds in 1973-74, Garnett ranks 25th on the career list with 3,209, while Nowitzki comes in 230th with 1,468.

Verdict: Big edge, Garnett.

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III. Defense

What about defense? That can be harder to measure, of course, but let’s take a look at the evidence we do have, namely:

1. Team Defense

2. Defensive Rebounding

3. Steals

4. Blocks

5. Personal Fouls

As in the section above, let’s compare and contrast Garnett and Nowitzki in these categories.

Team Defense

We obviously can’t assign all of the credit to either player for the defensive success of their teams, but both played significant minutes (about 34 per game) at an important defensive position.

Garnett played on five teams with a top-five defense (based on points allowed per possession), including two teams that led the NBA and two others that finished second. On the other hand, Nowitzki was a member of just one team with a top-five defense (2006-07 Dallas Mavericks, fifth).

Verdict: Big edge, Garnett.

Defensive Rebounding

Nowitzki was a good defensive rebounder, averaging 21.9 defensive boards per 100 opportunities. Garnett, however, was excellent on the defensive glass, with a career defensive rebound percentage of 26.0%. In fact, since the NBA began tracking defensive rebounds in 1973-74, no player has recorded more defensive rebounds than Garnett (11,453).

Verdict: Big edge, Garnett.

Steals

Garnett averaged an estimated 1.94 steals per 100 opponent possessions, while Nowitzki’s corresponding rate was 1.22. Over a typical season, that’s roughly a 40-steal advantage for Garnett.

Verdict: Big edge, Garnett.

Blocks

Garnett blocked about 3.0 shots per 100 opponent 2-point attempts, a rate that’s more than 50% higher than Nowitzki’s 1.9. Given the same number of opportunities over the course of a typical season, this amounts to an advantage of about 50 blocks for Garnett.

By the way, Garnett is one of:

• 19 players to record at least 2,000 blocks

• 51 players to record at least 1,500 steals

• two players to reach both of those marks (Hakeem Olajuwon)

Verdict: Big edge, Garnett.

Personal Fouls

Garnett and Nowitzki both averaged about 2.5 personal fouls per 36 minutes. Per 100 defensive possessions, those numbers are 3.7 for Garnett and 3.6 for Nowitzki. Basically, neither player really helped their team by avoiding fouls, nor hurt their team with excessive fouling.

Verdict: Push.

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IV. The Decision

With the caveat that I would not place equal weight on all categories (e.g., shooting efficiency is much more important than offensive rebounding), Garnett gets the edge in six statistical categories (all big) and Nowitzki gets the edge in three categories (two big), with one push. I also gave Garnett the edge when it comes to qualitative factors.

Nowitzki was clearly the better offensive player, but Garnett was just as clearly the superior defender:

• Nowitzki produced about 116 points per 100 individual possessions, six points higher that Garnett’s career offensive rating (ORTG) of 110.

• Garnett allowed about 99 points per 100 individual possessions, five points lower than Nowitzki’s career defensive rating (DRTG) of 104.

By John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER), these two come out almost even in the same number of minutes:

• Garnett — 22.7 PER (50,418 MIN)

• Nowitzki — 22.4 PER (51,368 MIN)

If you calculate their career values as described in this post (thus giving “big” seasons more weight), Nowitzki comes out slightly ahead:

• Nowitzki — 54,512

• Garnett — 53,084

I want to make a decision, so clearly some sort of tiebreaker is needed. Let’s go to the postseason, where Nowitzki’s teams won 13 of 27 series and Garnett’s teams won 13 of 26:

• Nowitzki — 145 GP, 23.8 PER, 116.9 ORTG, 107.5 DRTG

• Garnett — 143 GP, 21.1 PER, 104.9 ORTG, 99.0 DRTG

Among players with at least 2,500 minutes played in the postseason, Nowitzki ranks 11th in PER while Garnett places 32nd. If we omit active players, only five players rank ahead of Nowitzki by this measure:

• Michael Jordan (28.6)

• Shaquille O’Neal (26.1)

• Hakeem Olajuwon (25.7)

• Tim Duncan (24.3)

• Charles Barkley (24.2)

That’s some elite company. Garnett isn’t too far behind Nowitzki, but for me the gap in postseason performance is too much to simply ignore.

One more note before I render a final verdict: Nowitzki and Garnett faced off in just one playoff series, the 2002 Western Conference First Round:

• Nowitzki — 33.3 PPG, 15.7 RPG, 3.0 SPG, 59.6 eFG%, 88.9 FT%

• Garnett — 24.0 PPG, 18.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 43.8 eFG%, 71.9 FT%

Nowitzki’s Dallas Mavericks swept Garnett’s Minnesota Timberwolves in three games.

Final Verdict: Garnett and Nowitzki are two players who achieved very similar results in very different ways. The difference between them during the regular season is minuscule, but in my opinion Nowitzki’s postseason performance pushes him ever so slightly ahead of Garnett. It’s not a knockout, but give me Nowitzki.