Showdown: Larry Bird vs. Magic Johnson
The tale of the tape for two legends intertwined in history.
Larry Bird and Magic Johnson are two of the greatest players to ever play the game. They each logged 13 seasons, all with a single franchise (Bird with the Boston Celtics and Johnson with the Los Angeles Lakers). These legends are intertwined in history, debuting in the same season and going head-to-head in the NBA Finals three times over the course of their careers. Who comes out on top when we pit them head-to-head?
I. Awards and Honors
Let’s take a look at the qualitative information first:
Both players have been elected to the Hall of Fame.
Bird and Johnson both debuted in the 1979-80 season, with Bird winning the NBA’s Rookie of the Year Award and Johnson finishing second.
Bird and Johnson each earned 10 All-NBA selections, with the same team breakdown (nine First Team and one Second Team).
Bird was selected to three All-Defensive teams (all Second Team), an honor Johnson never received.
Bird and Johnson each received MVP votes in 12 different seasons, winning the award three times apiece. Bird finished as the runner-up in the MVP voting four times, two more than Johnson.
Bird and Johnson were selected to play in 12 All-Star Games apiece.
Johnson played in nine NBA Finals and won five titles, while Bird appeared in five NBA Finals and won three times.
Johnson was named Finals MVP three times, Bird twice.
I’m going to call this one a draw. Bird’s Rookie of the Year Award and All-Defensive selections are balanced by Johnson’s superior Finals record. Let’s dig a little deeper and see what stories the numbers have to tell us.
II. Offense
There are many things a player can do on offense to help his team, but the five most important skills are probably the following:
Make shots from the field.
Get to — and make shots from — the free throw line.
Minimize turnovers.
Create shots for others.
Extend possessions with offensive rebounds.
Let’s compare and contrast Bird and Johnson in these categories.
Make shots from the field
Johnson’s career effective field goal percentage of 53.3% ranks 107th among players with at least 2,000 field goals made, while Bird’s 51.4% places him 211th all time. That’s a difference of about 38 points per 1,000 shots, which adds up over the course of a long career.
This result might surprise some people, as Bird was by far the superior 3-point shooter: 37.6% on 1.9 attempts per game compared to 30.3% on 1.2 attempts per game for Johnson. However, Johnson outshot Bird 54.1% to 50.9% on 2-pointers.
Even taking into account that Bird was more of a volume shooter than Johnson, averaging about six more attempts per game, I’m going to call this one for Magic.
Verdict: Edge, Johnson.
Get to — and make shots from — the free throw line
On a relative basis, Johnson got to the free throw line almost twice as often as Bird, averaging 48.9 free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts compared to 25.8 for Bird. Even looking at strict per-game figures, Johnson has a 30% edge in attempts (6.5 to 5.0).
Both players were excellent from the charity stripe, with career free throw percentages of 88.6% for Bird and 84.8% for Johnson. Bird’s superior success rate slightly offsets Johnson’s edge in opportunities, but Johnson still takes this round.
Verdict: Edge, Johnson.
Minimize turnovers
Bird averaged 15.0 turnovers per 100 individual possessions*, while Johnson’s corresponding rate was 20.2. That amounts to about 83 more turnovers for Johnson over a typical season, a figure that can’t be ignored.
* The formula for individual possessions was developed by Dean Oliver. It takes into account most offensive statistics that can be found in the box score.
Verdict: Big edge, Bird.
Create shots for others
Johnson assisted on approximately 40.9% of his teammates’ made field goals while he was on the court, a rate that dwarfs Bird’s 24.7%. To be fair, Bird was a great passer, but Johnson was an exceptional one.
Verdict: Big edge, Johnson.
Extend possessions with offensive rebounds
Bird snagged an estimated 5.9 offensive rebounds per 100 opportunities, a rate slightly higher than Johnson’s average of 5.7. These numbers are estimates based on season totals, though, so the small advantage for Bird doesn’t carry much weight.
Verdict: Push.
III. Defense
What about defense? That can be harder to measure, of course, but let’s take a look at the evidence we do have, namely:
Team Defense
Defensive Rebounding
Steals
Blocks
Personal Fouls
As in the section above, let’s compare and contrast Bird and Johnson in these categories.
Team Defense
We obviously can’t assign all of the credit to either player for the defensive success of their teams, but both played substantial minutes (36-38 per game) and therefore had an influence (good or bad) on that end of the floor.
Bird played on five teams with a top-five defense (based on points allowed per 100 possessions), including one team that led the NBA (1985-86 Celtics). On the other hand, Johnson was a member of just one team with a top-five defense (1990-91 Lakers, fifth).
Verdict: Big edge, Bird.
Defensive Rebounding
Bird was a good defensive rebounder, averaging 22.4 defensive boards per 100 opportunities. Johnson was also a good rebounder relative to his position, with a career defensive rebound percentage of 15.9%. Still, this one clearly goes to Bird.
Verdict: Big edge, Bird.
Steals
Johnson averaged an estimated 2.46 steals per 100 opponent possessions, while Bird’s corresponding rate was 2.16. Over a typical season, that’s an advantage of roughly 18 steals for Johnson.
Verdict: Big edge, Johnson.
Blocks
Bird blocked about 1.22 shots per 100 opponent 2-point attempts, a rate that’s almost double Johnson’s figure of 0.62. Given the same number of opportunities over the course of a typical season, this amounts to an advantage of about 29 blocks for Bird.
Verdict: Big edge, Bird.
Personal Fouls
Bird and Johnson averaged 2.4 and 2.2 personal fouls per 36 minutes, respectively. Per 100 defensive possessions, those numbers are 3.2 for Bird and 2.9 for Johnson. Basically, neither player really helped their team by avoiding fouls, nor hurt their team with excessive fouling.
Verdict: Push.
IV. The Decision
With the caveat that I would not place equal weight on all categories (e.g., shooting efficiency is much more important than offensive rebounding), each player gets the edge in four statistical categories (four big for Bird, two big for Johnson) with two pushes. I also called it a draw when it comes to qualitative factors.
I think Bird was clearly the better defensive player, but I give Johnson the edge when it comes to being an offensive force. Johnson was the pilot for seven teams that posted the best offensive rating in the NBA, and two others that ranked second. While Bird was certainly no slouch, only one of his teams led the league in points per 100 possessions, with two others finishing second.
So how do we break this tie? I think it comes down to postseason play. We already know Johnson holds the edge in both Finals appearances (nine to five) and championships won (five to three). Now let’s look at their individual play.
Among players with at least 100 career games in the postseason, Johnson ranks fifth in individual wins per 48 minutes (0.235) while Bird ranks 20th (.198). If you prefer Player Efficiency Rating, Johnson (23.0, 15th) still bests Bird (21.4, 24th). I think you’ll find that by most “advanced” measures, Johnson rates as the superior playoff performer.
Final Verdict: Bird and Johnson are contemporaries who achieved very similar results in slightly different ways. It’s very, very close, but in my opinion Johnson’s postseason performance pushes him slightly ahead of Bird. It’s not a knockout by any means, but give me Magic in this bout.
