6 Comments
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Bob Rathbun's avatar

Mind publishing your entire list? Where did you have Nique? Thanks!

Justin Kubatko's avatar

Hey Bob, I added the full list as a postscript to the online version. Nique has 57 points, which puts him in a tie for 34th place with Robert Parish and Pau Gasol. Again, though, this is not necessarily where I would rank him all time.

George Rising's avatar

Justin, I like this concept! I'll examine it more in detail later.

A couple of quick comments: First, Magic and Bird each had relatively short careers (c. 34K MP), so this system must emphasize proficiency over cumulative. Having their HOF point totals near Kareem (57K MP) and LeBron (54K MP) seems off to me.

Second, I think the HOF points for PPG, RPG, and APG are a little off. Throughout NBA history per 48 MP, players have averaged about 21 PPG, 9 RPG, and 4 APG. So maybe those average numbers should be the threshold. Also, I would do it per minute, not per game. Finally, I think you should adjust for context, especially for rebounding.

Justin Kubatko's avatar

As I said in the post, the point wasn't to rank players, but to come up with a system to classify players. Given that, where Magic and Bird are doesn't bother me. Also, I was trying to look at it through the eyes of the voters, who have clearly placed more weight on per-game figures rather than per-minute figures. I also don't think context plays a big part in the voting. Maybe I'm wrong and failing to give the voters enough credit, though.

George Rising's avatar

Well, any time you associate a number with a player, you are effectively ranking them, at least in tiers for players close in score. And then, when you make a certain number a cut score (threshold) for HOF, you are definitely ranking them by score.

If you want a system where the HOF voters' "score" is close to a score based on stats and accolades, I suggest that you reverse engineer it: Find a ranking that you support (ESPN 2022 or whatever or your own), and then make a system of the stats, accolades, etc. that will end with a ranking like.

Strangely enough, I found that a weird stat (career playoff WS of all things) correlates pretty closely to the consensus ranking of ESPN, etc:

1 LeBron James

2 Michael Jordan*

3 Tim Duncan*

4 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*

5 Magic Johnson*

6 Wilt Chamberlain*

7 Shaquille O'Neal*

8 Kobe Bryant*

9 Bill Russell*

10 Julius Erving*

11 Jerry West*

12 Kevin Durant

13 Larry Bird*

14 Scottie Pippen*

15 Dirk Nowitzki

16 Karl Malone*

17 Kawhi Leonard

18 Hakeem Olajuwon*

19 Stephen Curry

20 Dwyane Wade

Duncan, Pippen, and Kawhi a little high, but otherwise eerliy accurate. This includes ABA, which is why Erving ranks where he does. (I'm not seriously suggesting using career PO WS, by the way.)